I’m not going to paint myself as some Fantasy Football Guru at this point (maybe after doing this for a full season I’ll graduate to that level), but I have played in a ton of fantasy leagues over the years (since the days of notebooks, pencils, and self-calculated scoring…yes, that existed) to have a pretty good idea what to watch out for over the course of a season.

This (hopefully weekly) column is going to work like this:

For each game of the week, I’ll give you one “Phenom” and one “Flameout” player pick for how I think they’ll score in fantasy that week.  The Phenom’s are the guys who I think have a good chance at putting up above average numbers due to their weekly matchup or a gut feeling I have, and you should start if it fits your team’s need.  The Flameout’s are the guys I think will score at a level below their averages and you should sit if you have another option for the same reasons.

Keep in mind, if you bench Larry Fitzgerald for a much lesser overall WR because of what I say later in this article, don’t blame me when it blows up in your team’s face; you’ve just misinterpreted the advice I’ve given.  If this decision happens to magically work out for you however, my response to you of course will be, “I told you so.”  So take the information I present as only another Fantasy-Football-playing-guy’s opinion (who does do some serious research) on the options you have, and use it in any way you so choose to make your own decision.

With that out of the way, as an introduction to my credentials, here’s a few rules I live by when putting my team together and picking starters each week:

- I believe in rookie running backs, just not as my #1 option.  In other words, I think you wasted your first round pick on Ryan Mathews.

- If you aren’t comfortable with the options remaining for you at running back in the first round of your draft, DON’T TAKE ONE.  From a guy who has done it before, your league can be won with only a strong receiving core and 2nd tier quarterback.

- In leagues with 12 or more teams, as far as your #2 RB and #2 WR spots (unless of course you managed to grab 2 week-in week-out studs) and Flex positions are concerned, weekly matchups play a much more important role in choosing who to start or sit, so get yourself accustomed to checking these pages every week.

- Believe in players from the NFL team you follow closest (in my case, that’s the Vikings), but don’t reach to pick them in your draft.  The information you read on a daily basis from your local paper is the most detailed and accurate information you’ll find on what to expect from a player in any given game.

Those are just a few of my rules, so without further ado, here are my Fantasy Football “Phenom and Flamout” picks for week 1 of the 2010 NFL Season:

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

Phenom: This one is a little hard to pin down as there are lots of factors that come into play for both teams (like Drew Brees’ tendency to spread the ball around and Brett Favre’s late arrival in camp), but I’m going with Minnesota TE Visanthe Shiancoe.  With the Saints’ Darren Sharper missing from this game and the Vikings likely to be conservative with their playcalling, look for Shiancoe to be Favre’s favorite target in the passing game.

Flameout: This one is a easier to predict even though each of these guys can contribute in the passing game, but the Saints’ RB Pierre Thomas and RB Reggie Bush will have a tough go at putting up yards on the ground against Minnesota’s vaunted rush defense led by Kevin and Pat Williams (they totaled just 69 yards on 21 carries in the Title Game last postseason).

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants

Phenom: Unlike the tandem mentioned above, expect a lot of yardage on the ground from the Panther’s talented duo.  Carolina blasted New York 41 – 9 in Giants Stadium during week 16 last year on the legs of RB Jonathan Stewart and his 206 yards.  This time, they’ll also have RB Deangelo Williams.

Flameout: I don’t expect much from WR Steve Smith…of both the Giants AND Panthers variety.  Carolina’s Steve will play for the first time since suffering a broken arm, and New York’s Steve is facing the NFL’s 4th ranked pass defense in 2009.

Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Phenom: With backup quarterback David Dixon running the show, the Steelers will rely much more on the run game, setting up RB Rashard Mendenhall for a big 2010 home opener.

Flameout: Between Pittsburgh’s strong run defense and playing on the road at Heinz Field, I just don’t see an above average day coming from Atlanta RB Michael Turner.

Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Phenom: I like all the #1 Running Backs in this one as it’s 2 of the bottom 4 Run Defenses from 2009 matching up against each other (Browns 28th, Bucs 32nd).  RB Jerome Harrison and RB Carnell Williams could both have big days.

Flameout: Bad team’s seem to breed success all over the field, so I’ll make sure you’ve been paying attention to injuries in this one; don’t stash Browns RB Montario Hardesty as a rookie sleeper.  Drop him now, as he’s suffered a torn ACL (he can by my rehab buddy!) and is done for the year.

Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Phenom: Facing one of the worst pass defenses of last year, this is one week where you can expect Broncos QB Kyle Orton to put up better-than-normal numbers with his diminished stock of receiving weapons.

Flameout: For the Jaguars last season, WR Mike Sims-Walker had a breakout campaign.  But I don’t see him getting off to a good start against perennial Pro Bowl cornerback Champ Bailey.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Phenom: I’m not quite ready to name him a legit #2 Fantasy running back option as I don’t necessarily trust his success at the end of last year (yet), but I do think Texans RB Arian Foster will reward owners that did and drafted him as such in week 1.

Flameout: Even though he threw for a lot of yards in both games against Indy last season, Houston QB Matt Schaub also threw 4 interceptions compared to just 3 touchdowns.  So in league’s where passing TD’s are worth only 4 points, you might be able to find a better option on your bench.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

Phenom: In this game there is another running back one-two punch that should get plenty of opportunities against a poor Buffalo run defense that gave up a 156.3 yards/game last year (30th in NFL).  Which one of the Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown and RB Ricky Williams makes the most of those opportunities in 2010 is the only thing left to be determined in Miami.

Flameout: In their 2 divisional games against the Bills last season, Miami pounded the run to the tune of 407 yards compared to just 290 through the air.  This doesn’t bode well for a breakout Dolphins debut from WR Brandon Marshall.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Phenom: A Bears-fan-friend of mine will likely give me crap for this pick, but if QB Jay Cutler can’t succeed in a Mike Martz passing offense against a Lions defense that ranked dead last in that regard last season, he doesn’t have hope against anybody this year.

Flameout: As for the Lions, I don’t like rookie RB Jahvid Best‘s prospects for a memorable NFL initiation with their shaky offensive line going against an improved Chicago front seven.

Cincinati Bengals @ New England Patriots

Phenom: With Terrell Owens’ arrival alongside Chad Ochocinco in the passing game, look for Bengals RB Cedric Benson to find a lot of open running lanes against a New England defense that will have to sit back in coverage more and looks susceptible to the run already.

Flameout: Coming off a season-ending injury and facing a very tough secondary, don’t expect Patriots WR Wes Welker to light up your fantasy scoreboard in week 1 (even in PPR Leagues).

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams

Phenom: Beanie Wells will likely be the Cardinals primary running back as the 2010 season progresses, but with him recovering from a knee injury and currently listed as #2 on depth chart, RB Tim Hightower will see most of the action against the NFL’s 27th ranked run defense from last year to open the season.

Flameout: I devalued WR Larry Fitzgerald heavily in my pre-draft rankings this year (which doesn’t mean he’s not still a top fantasy WR over the season) due to Kurt Warner’s and Anquan Boldin’s exits from Arizona.  Add that to the fact he’s had some knee issues this preseason and Derek Anderson is making his first start with the Cardinals, and I see it taking some time before QB and WR get a good feel for each other going against defenses that will key more often on the talented wideout.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Phenom: If you’re like me and picked 49ers WR Michael Crabtree much earlier than his average draft position in your league, I don’t think it will take long for us to reap the rewards as the Seahawks surrendered 27 passing TD’s last year and ranked 30th in passing yards allowed.

Flameout: In 12 team league’s there’s a good chance someone liked the upside of Seattle RB Justin Forsett at their #2 RB or Flex position, but don’t buy into that potential in week 1.  There’s probably a guy on a much better overall offense who’s not facing Patrick Willis and the 49ers tough run-d on your bench.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Phenom: The most fun league I play in starts 2 defenders (2 DB’s or 1 DL/LB and 1 DB) and awards points to position players for Kick and Punt Return yardage.  In this format, Eagles WR Desean Jackson is a beast (#2 scoring WR behind only Andre Johnson in that league last season, and he’s on my team this year!), but he’s also going against a depleted Green Bay secondary at home to open 2010.

Flameout: While I’m a believer in Philadelphia RB LeSean McCoy over the full season, against a Packers team that allowed a total of only 7 rushing and receiving touchdowns to running backs in 2009, I don’t see Philadelphia’s offense moving the ball because of him in this game.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins

Phenom: If you weren’t able to land one of the supposed top-tier Tight Ends in your draft and had to “settle” for Redskins TE Chris Cooley, you’ll feel better about the pick as the season wears on.  Donovan McNabb loves throwing to the TE and on an offense lacking premier receiving talent, Cooley will put up a much better touchdown total than the past 2 seasons; starting at home in week 1.

Flameout: Recent results suggest Cowboys QB Tony Romo will not lead your team to victory in the season’s first fantasy matchup against Washington.  So if you’ve got a decent backup with a more favorable draw, don’t feel bad about benching him here during a non-bye week.  In the 2 games against the Redskins last season, Dallas scored just 24 points with Romo throwing only 1 TD and an INT in both of them.  It becomes an even worse matchup in 4-pts-per-passing-TD leagues.

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets

Phenom: A depleted secondary missing cornerback Dominique Foxworth for the season and free safety Ed Reed for the first six weeks will be susceptible to the big play.  New York WR Braylon Edwards can provide those, and now has a full offseason’s worth of work in Brian Schottenheimer’s offense under his belt.

Flameout: Even though Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis just recently began practicing after a contract dispute and likely won’t play every snap, Ravens WR Anquan Boldin‘s opportunities will likely be limited against him and the #1 overall pass defense from last year.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Phenom: Despite the opinion I gave on him at the beginning of this article, if there is a team Chargers rookie RB Ryan Mathews will look like a #1 Fantasy running back against, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs, as they possessed the 2nd worst run defense in all of the NFL in 2009.

Flameout: Another set of running backs to be mentioned in tandem comes from Kansas City, where I expect RB Jamaal Charles and RB Thomas Jones to not get much of an opportunity due to the potential that exists to fall behind early in this game.  If you’ve got a better matchup at RB than either of these two, don’t hesitate to put ‘em on your bench.

- Like I said in the introduction, take and use the information I’ve presented as you so choose.  I’m not going to be right 100% of the time, but I won’t be wrong 100% of the time either.  Along the way I hope to help you make some good decisions, and unless you’re in a league where I’m playing against you (I’m talking to you Bears-fan-friend), also hope your team doesn’t tank based on the advice I’ve given.

So until next week, enjoy the kickoff to the 2010 NFL Season tonight in New Orleans (Skol Vikings!), and the beginning of the 2010 quest to rule your NFL Fantasy domain.

You can follow me on Twitter:  @MNTwinsGUFS (though I talk mostly about the Twins of MLB and Vikings there), send any thoughts or questions to: twins.gufs@gmail.com, or leave your comments below!